How the META expected move is computed
Expected move = stock price × at-the-money implied volatility × √(days to expiry ÷ 365). The stock price is META's close in the session shown. The implied volatility is the size-weighted median of that session's option prints with a strike within 2% of the close, for that expiry, and is stated only when at least 10 such prints traded. The result is a one-standard-deviation range: in a normal distribution the price would end inside it about two times in three.
The at-the-money straddle (the call plus the put at the strike nearest the close) is a second read of the same thing: its price is roughly what the market charged to own a move of any direction. When both legs traded, its last price is shown beside the volatility figure.
Try other prices, volatilities and dates in the expected move calculator, which uses the same formula.
What the META expected move does not tell you
It is a market-implied size of move, not a forecast of direction or a probability you can count on. Implied volatility changes during the session and around events such as earnings, and real returns have fatter tails than a normal distribution, so moves beyond the range happen more often than one in three.
- A one-standard-deviation range, not a ceiling or a floor.
- From one completed session, delayed at least 48 hours: implied volatility has moved since.
- Weekly options price an event such as earnings into a short window, so the weekly range can be wide.
META options on CaymanBot
The META options page shows the same session's call and put volume, premium and put/call ratio and its gamma exposure by strike.
Expected move for other tickers: SPY, QQQ, NVDA, AAPL, TSLA, AMD, AMZN, MSFT, PLTR.
Primary sources
Definitions, source details and material claims were checked against these primary references.